Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(8:16) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to PHI 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 30 for 8 yards (55-C.Lindenberg; 51-M.Koonce).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.84 EP
71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model