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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Pete Carroll
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌨 Snow Spread 12.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

LV
21.4%
PHI
78.6%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Kenny Pickett (LV): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts (LV starting Kenny Pickett in place of Geno Smith)
  • Wind 20 mph

Predicted Final Score

LV 17
–
PHI 27
Projected margin: PHI by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LV

Geno Smith QB Out Shoulder
Kolton Miller T Out Ankle
Alex Bachman WR Out Thumb
Ian Thomas TE Questionable Calf
Jeremy Chinn S Questionable Back
Jordan Meredith C Questionable Foot

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Foot
Jalen Carter DT Out Shoulder
Cameron Williams T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 0
–
PHI 31

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:55 TD PHI (7:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 12:53 FG PHI (12:53) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. LV 0 – PHI 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD PHI (2:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – PHI 16
  • Q3 04:57 TD PHI (4:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – PHI 23
  • Q4 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – PHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 66%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Lockett (50-J.Phillips).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (12:53) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:59) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to PHI 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:23) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to LV 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:16) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to PHI 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 30 for 8 yards (55-C.Lindenberg; 51-M.Koonce).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:36) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to PHI 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 21 for 11 yards (29-C.Anusiem; 44-T.Eichenberg).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 20 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (2:50) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to PHI 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:27) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to PHI 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 31 for 5 yards (59-J.Rhattigan; 87-M.Mayer). PENALTY on PHI-21-S.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 29.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (2:00) 37-T.Bigsby left guard to LV 2 for -1 yards (44-T.Eichenberg).