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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model