4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 47-R.Patterson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP