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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Monday 2025-12-15 · 20:15 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🥶 Cold Spread 3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

MIA
44.6%
PIT
55.4%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

Andrew Meyer C Out Triceps
Elijah Campbell S Doubtful Ankle
Larry Borom T Questionable Illness

PIT

Andrus Peat G Out Concussion
T.J. Watt LB Out Lung
James Pierre CB Out Calf
Darnell Washington TE Questionable Concussion
Derrick Harmon DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 15
–
PIT 28

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:17 FG MIA (5:17) 47-R.Patterson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – PIT 0
  • Q2 00:21 TD PIT (:21) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – PIT 6
  • Q3 11:26 TD PIT (11:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – PIT 13
  • Q3 05:06 TD PIT (5:06) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 4-D.Metcalf for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – PIT 20
  • Q4 13:07 TD PIT (13:07) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 81-J.Smith right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – PIT 27
  • Q4 09:48 TD MIA (9:48) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – PIT 28
  • Q4 02:38 TD MIA (2:38) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 83-D.Waller for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 15 – PIT 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (12:46) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:26) 3-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to MIA 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 6-M.Washington to MIA 29 for 7 yards (15-B.Skowronek; 33-J.Sawyer).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:56) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 30 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 54%

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell pushed ob at MIA 32 for 9 yards (23-J.Jones).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 20 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 51%

    (15:00) 3-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:12) 16-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to PIT 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin to PIT 29 for no gain (46-I.Johnson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:44) 3-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to MIA 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-22-A.Samuel.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 67%

    (5:17) 47-R.Patterson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 95%

    (1:46) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to MIA 14 for 1 yard (25-T.Dodson; 21-A.Davis).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin to PIT 23 for 8 yards (49-J.Cardona). ** Injury Update: MIA-31-O.Gordon has returned to the game.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.88 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:36) 3-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 6-M.Washington to MIA 14 for 7 yards (15-B.Skowronek; 44-C.Bruener).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 24%

    (2:14) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to MIA 3, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 89 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65%

    (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane to MIA 17 for 6 yards (29-K.Dugger).