4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(1:46) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to MIA 14 for 1 yard (25-T.Dodson; 21-A.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.89 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model