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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Miami Dolphins
4th & 7 at the 50
Miami Dolphins 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(12:46) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.88 EP
Model's Pick
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.27 EP
KICK
-1.95 EP
- 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.01 EP
- 69% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT
-1.02 EP
What Happened
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -1.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
