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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Miami Dolphins 9

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 3-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 6-M.Washington to MIA 14 for 7 yards (15-B.Skowronek; 44-C.Bruener).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.18 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.88 EP