Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 89

Miami Dolphins 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

(1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane to MIA 17 for 6 yards (29-K.Dugger).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

What Happened

65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.14 EP
35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 89, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model