4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:56) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 30 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.58 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model