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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:19) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell pushed ob at MIA 32 for 9 yards (23-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model