Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
78% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP

KICK -0.25 EP

51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
49% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model