4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 16-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to PIT 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin to PIT 29 for no gain (46-I.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model