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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 1

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 9-J.McCarthy left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.26 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model