MIN @ DAL — 4th & Data

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HC Kevin O'Connell

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HC Brian Schottenheimer

Sunday 2025-12-14 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIN

19.6%

DAL

80.4%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

MIN offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.184 vs J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.313 EPA/dropback
DAL defense: +0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
DAL offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
DAL on 3 more days rest than MIN

Predicted Final Score

MIN 19

–

DAL 29

Projected margin: DAL by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIN

Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Knee

Ty Chandler RB Questionable Knee

DAL

Tyler Guyton T Out Ankle

Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Hamstring

Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Knee

Jake Ferguson TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 34

–

DAL 26

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:26 TD DAL (8:26) 33-J.Williams right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DAL 6
Q1 02:41 TD MIN (2:41) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 1-J.Nailor for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-1-J.Nailor was injured during the play. MIN 6 – DAL 7
Q2 14:55 TD DAL (14:55) 43-M.Davis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – DAL 13
Q2 09:34 TD MIN (9:34) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 9-J.McCarthy left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – DAL 14
Q2 01:52 FG MIN (1:52) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 17 – DAL 14
Q2 00:08 FG DAL (:08) 17-B.Aubrey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. MIN 17 – DAL 17
Q3 11:17 FG DAL (11:17) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. MIN 17 – DAL 20
Q3 04:54 FG DAL (4:54) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. MIN 17 – DAL 23
Q3 01:14 TD MIN (1:14) 30-C.Ham up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – DAL 23
Q4 09:16 TD MIN (9:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 30 – DAL 23
Q4 01:13 FG MIN (1:13) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 34 – DAL 23
Q4 00:23 FG DAL (:23) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. MIN 34 – DAL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 29

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 84%

(12:41) (Field Goal formation) 17-B.Aubrey right end to MIN 23 for 6 yards (0-I.Pace).
Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 2

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

(8:43) 33-J.Williams up the middle to MIN 1 for 1 yard (51-B.Cashman; 44-J.Metellus).
Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 68

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP

p(convert) 61%

(4:43) 17-R.Wright punts 65 yards to DAL 3, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.
Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 89

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP

p(convert) 66%

(3:16) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to MIN 47, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 4-M.Price.
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

(9:34) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 9-J.McCarthy left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 50

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 37%

(8:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to MIN 33 for 17 yards (55-E.Wilson).
Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

(5:56) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

(1:52) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

(:08) 17-B.Aubrey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 8

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(11:17) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(10:17) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.
Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

(4:54) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 37

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 69%

(2:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to DAL 14 for 23 yards (34-S.Revel).
Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 41

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 60%

(12:24) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 45

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 50%

(5:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 43-M.Davis to MIN 39 for 6 yards (55-E.Wilson). MIN-58-J.Greenard was injured during the play.
Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 52 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 32%

(3:21) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to DAL 48 for 4 yards (42-J.Clowney; 95-K.Clark).
Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 35 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 73%

(1:13) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.