4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(8:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to MIN 33 for 17 yards (55-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.93 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model