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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 33

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 17-B.Aubrey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.34 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model