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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP