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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to DAL 10, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model