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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model