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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to DAL 14 for 23 yards (34-S.Revel).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model