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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 2

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 33-J.Williams up the middle to MIN 1 for 1 yard (51-B.Cashman; 44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO +4.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.57 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 2, worth +0.84 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model