4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to DAL 48 for 4 yards (42-J.Clowney; 95-K.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.90 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model