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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 17-R.Wright punts 65 yards to DAL 3, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-13-T.Felton.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.27 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP