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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 89

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to MIN 47, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 89, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP