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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model