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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TEN
16.5%
SF
83.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.174 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.222 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SF on 7 more days rest than TEN
  • SF defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
SF 30
Projected margin: SF by 11 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TEN

Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Achilles
Kevin Zeitler G Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Lloyd Cushenberry III C Questionable Foot
Dan Moore Jr. T Questionable Neck
C.J. Ravenell DT Questionable Toe
James Williams LB Questionable Illness

SF

Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Hamstring
Sam Okuayinonu DE Out Ankle
Tatum Bethune LB Out Ankle
Nick Martin LB Out Concussion
Kurtis Rourke QB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 24
–
SF 37

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:54 TD SF (7:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 01:26 FG TEN (1:26) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker. TEN 3 – SF 7
  • Q2 13:07 TD SF (13:07) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-53-J.Ward, Defensive Offside, declined. TEN 3 – SF 13
  • Q2 07:52 TD TEN (7:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 84-G.Helm for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – SF 14
  • Q2 01:00 FG SF (1:00) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. TEN 10 – SF 17
  • Q3 13:00 TD SF (13:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – SF 23
  • Q3 02:14 TD SF (2:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – SF 30
  • Q4 14:25 TD TEN (14:25) 98-J.Simmons reported in as eligible. 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 98-J.Simmons for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – SF 31
  • Q4 09:32 FG SF (9:32) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. TEN 17 – SF 34
  • Q4 05:37 TD TEN (5:37) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 23 – SF 34
  • Q4 01:14 FG SF (1:14) 18-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. TEN 24 – SF 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:59) 3-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to SF 30, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (1:26) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (1:00) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:37) 3-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to SF 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 75%

    (6:17) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to TEN 31 for 2 yards (93-T.Sweat; 98-J.Simmons).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to SF 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 9-S.Moore to SF 44 for 18 yards (48-J.Bachie; 3-J.Hekker).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (9:32) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (6:12) 1-C.Ward up the middle to SF 6 for 2 yards (99-C.West).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 91%

    (1:14) 18-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm to 50 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha).