Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 10 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(11:37) 3-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to SF 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model