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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 34 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 18-E.Pineiro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.94 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model