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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.57 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model