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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
53.9%
MIA
46.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Quinn Ewers (MIA): -0.304 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIA starting Quinn Ewers in place of Tua Tagovailoa)
  • CIN defense: +0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Quinn Ewers (MIA) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22
–
MIA 20
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CIN

Noah Fant TE Out Ankle
Joseph Ossai DE Out Ankle
Charlie Jones WR Out Ankle
B.J. Hill DT Questionable Ankle
Tee Higgins WR Questionable Concussion
DJ Turner II CB Questionable Illness
PJ Jules S Questionable Ankle

MIA

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Calf
Jason Sanders K Out Hip
Andrew Meyer C Out Triceps
Elijah Campbell S Questionable Ankle
Jordyn Brooks LB Questionable Foot
Isaiah Johnson CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 45
–
MIA 21

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:02 TD CIN (4:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 02:35 TD MIA (2:35) 28-D.Achane left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 06:06 FG CIN (6:06) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 10 – MIA 7
  • Q2 02:30 TD MIA (2:30) 6-M.Washington right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – MIA 13
  • Q2 01:28 TD CIN (1:28) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – MIA 14
  • Q3 09:49 TD CIN (9:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 30-C.Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – MIA 14
  • Q3 08:37 TD CIN (8:37) 30-C.Brown right guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – MIA 14
  • Q3 02:30 TD CIN (2:30) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 37 – MIA 14
  • Q4 13:37 TD CIN (13:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 44 – MIA 14
  • Q4 03:47 TD MIA (3:47) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 5-J.Wright right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 45 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:18) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 24%

    (8:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CIN 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-K.Williams.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (15:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 50 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:50) 16-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (6:06) 2-E.McPherson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to CIN 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-82-D.Eskridge.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 87%

    (11:12) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to MIA 24 for 1 yard (25-T.Dodson; 44-C.Robinson).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 38%

    (5:34) 14-Q.Ewers up the middle to CIN 47 for no gain (95-H.Cross). (Virtual Measurement).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CIN 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-K.Williams to CIN 46 for 26 yards (31-O.Gordon).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 36%

    (9:20) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to MIA 3, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-82-M.Tinsley.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 59 yards to MIA 4, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-42-O.Burks. ** Injury Update: CIN-43-J.Giles-Harris has returned to the game.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left tackle to MIA 48 for 3 yards (95-H.Cross; 43-J.Giles-Harris).