Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(12:18) 8-R.Rehkow punts 54 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model