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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 14-Q.Ewers up the middle to CIN 47 for no gain (95-H.Cross). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.98 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model