4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 45

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CIN 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-K.Williams to CIN 46 for 26 yards (31-O.Gordon).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model