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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 45 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 59 yards to MIA 4, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-42-O.Burks. ** Injury Update: CIN-43-J.Giles-Harris has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -2.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP