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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CIN 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP