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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 45

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright left tackle to MIA 48 for 3 yards (95-H.Cross; 43-J.Giles-Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.38 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -0.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model