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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 45

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to GB 5, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: GB-53-A.Mosby has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model