GB @ CHI — 4th & Data

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Chicago Bears

11-4 HC Ben Johnson

Saturday 2025-12-20 · 20:20 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

50.8%

CHI

49.2%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

GB offense: +0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Jordan Love (GB): +0.239 EPA/dropback in prior starts
CHI offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
CHI defense: -0.005 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 25 18–32

–

CHI 23 16–30

Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

GB

Josh Whyle TE Out Concussion

MarShawn Lloyd RB Out Calf

Collin Oliver LB Out Hamstring

John Williams G Out Back

Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Knee

Kingsley Enagbare DE Questionable Illness

Darian Kinnard T Questionable Neck

Zach Bako-Bewele T Questionable Back

Christian Watson WR Questionable Chest

Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Ankle

Brenton Cox Jr. DE Questionable Groin

Chris Brooks RB Questionable Chest

Evan Williams S Questionable Knee

CHI

Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Out Hamstring

Rome Odunze WR Out Foot

Luther Burden III WR Out Ankle

Tremaine Edmunds LB Questionable Groin

D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin

Cole Kmet TE Questionable Ankle

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DE Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 16

–

CHI 22

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 12:49 FG GB (12:49) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – CHI 0
Q2 01:45 FG GB (1:45) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 6 – CHI 0
Q3 12:17 FG CHI (12:17) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 6 – CHI 3
Q3 00:39 TD GB (:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-11-J.Reed, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 12 – CHI 3
Q4 10:57 FG CHI (10:57) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 13 – CHI 6
Q4 05:06 FG GB (5:06) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 16 – CHI 6
Q4 02:04 FG CHI (2:04) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. GB 16 – CHI 9
Q4 00:28 TD CHI (:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 15
Q5 04:57 TD CHI (4:57) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – CHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 7

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

(9:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 4

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

(3:55) Direct snap to 25-K.Monangai. 25-K.Monangai Aborted. 52-D.Dalman FUMBLES at GB 10, recovered by CHI-25-K.Monangai at GB 22.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

(12:49) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 44%

(9:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to GB 5, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: GB-53-A.Mosby has returned to the game.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 59

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 73%

(5:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis left end pushed ob at CHI 46 for 13 yards (94-A.Booker).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

(1:45) 17-B.McManus 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

(:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to GB 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 87-R.Doubs.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

(12:17) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 79

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 53%

(4:25) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to GB 36, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-44-N.Sewell.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 74%

(10:57) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 10

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

(5:06) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 48 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71% p(FG) 36%

(4:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end to GB 36 for 12 yards (7-Q.Walker).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 25 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 87%

(2:04) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 6 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

(:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →

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