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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 28

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model