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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 33

Chicago Bears 3 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 8-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model