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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 7

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.46 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model