4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 13 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 17-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.41 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP