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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 48

Chicago Bears 6 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end to GB 36 for 12 yards (7-Q.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.32 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model