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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 4

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:55) Direct snap to 25-K.Monangai. 25-K.Monangai Aborted. 52-D.Dalman FUMBLES at GB 10, recovered by CHI-25-K.Monangai at GB 22.

The Three Options

GO +4.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.20 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.58 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model