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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.82 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model