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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
@
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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

JAX
39.7%
DEN
60.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Bo Nix (DEN): +0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 23
–
DEN 24
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

Jalen McLeod LB Out Ankle
Danny Striggow DE Out Ankle
Bhayshul Tuten RB Out Finger

DEN

Justin Strnad LB Out Foot
Karene Reid LB Out Hamstring
Ben Powers G Questionable Biceps

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 34
–
DEN 20

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:12 TD JAX (:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 12:51 TD DEN (12:51) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – DEN 6
  • Q2 09:14 FG DEN (9:14) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. JAX 7 – DEN 10
  • Q2 04:37 TD JAX (4:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – DEN 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG JAX (:02) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 17 – DEN 10
  • Q3 13:11 TD DEN (13:11) (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey right tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – DEN 16
  • Q3 07:46 TD JAX (7:46) (Shotgun) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – DEN 17
  • Q3 04:01 TD JAX (4:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 1-T.Etienne for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 30 – DEN 17
  • Q4 13:38 FG JAX (13:38) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 34 – DEN 17
  • Q4 10:47 FG DEN (10:47) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. JAX 34 – DEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 46 yards to JAX 39, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-P.Washington to JAX 41 for 2 yards (34-J.Skinner; 45-N.Adkins).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:07) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey right tackle to DEN 39 for 1 yard (23-F.Oluokun; 0-D.Lloyd). Jacksonville challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

    (5:15) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. ** Injury Update: JAX-6-G.Newsome has returned to the game.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 69%

    (9:14) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 44%

    (1:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-P.Washington. ** Injury Update: DEN-52-J.Elliss has returned to the game.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (6:12) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (13:38) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (10:47) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 7 yards (95-B.Green; 56-Y.Abdullah).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 57%

    (8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at JAX 30. 22-J.Jones to JAX 30 for no gain (13-P.Bryant).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:21) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 47%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton [91-A.Armstead]. ** Injury Update: JAX-30-M.Brown has returned to the game.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 65%

    (1:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to DEN 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-26-An.Johnson.