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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 36

Denver Broncos 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.09 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP