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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 46

Denver Broncos 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 33 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-P.Washington. ** Injury Update: DEN-52-J.Elliss has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP