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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 85

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 46 yards to JAX 39, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-P.Washington to JAX 41 for 2 yards (34-J.Skinner; 45-N.Adkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.17 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP